It said revenues (EBIT) were €93m (€92m in Q1), below estimates of €93m-€96m, and that investor expectations were muted into the print, but with unchanged outlook, it expected 2023 consensus EBIT of €380m as broadly unchanged.
“Overall, we see 2023 consensus EBIT of €380m being broadly unchanged, but modest downside at EPS level, given previously announced one-off Prague planned plant closure costs are not tax-deductible. We expect a better 2H vs 1H EBIT performance, with modest improvement in volumes and benefit of lower cost inflation (i.e. boxboard, polymer, waste paper & logistics) but their packaging pricing ‘sticking’ for longer, supporting margins.
The bank’s analysts said after a call with Huhtamaki, it recorded support for a better second half of the year compared to the first half.
“Driven by modest improvement in vols (contribution from new projects & reducing destock headwinds), packaging price/mix stable into 3Q, productivity initiatives & benefit of lower cost inflation supports EBIT (i.e. boxboard, polymer, waste paper & logistics).”
It said flexible packaging remains challenging: “Flexible plastic packaging has a longer supply chain, and greater ability to store stock through the chain & thus is continuing to see destocking headwinds. India (c8% sales) is focused on premium brands, and is likely to continue to see trading down. Short-term profitability improvement will be driven by volumes whilst longer term, the flexible division is a self-help recovery story potentially boosting group EBIT by >10% vs 2023 lows.”
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